TNN | May 11, 2011, The Left Front's 34-year rule in West Bengal is set to end with the Trinamool Congress-led alliance likely to win three-fourths of the seats, according to exit polls and post-poll surveys by various media outfits.
While unanimous on this,
the polls released on Tuesday differed on what will happen in Tamil
Nadu, Kerala and Assam and were silent on the outcome in Puducherry.
Two exit polls, done by AC Nielsen for Star Ananda and by CVoter for a host of media organizations, as well as two post-poll surveys done by CSDS for CNN-IBN and Week and by ORG for Headlines Today, gave the Mamata Banerjee-led alliance between 210 and 235 of the 294 seats in the West Bengal assembly.
Not all of them gave a break-up for the alliance, but if their projections come true, it would mean the Trinamool Congress
alone would have a comfortable majority in the assembly, which may be
almost as much of a worry for the Congress as for the Left.
Star Ananda-Nielsen poll was confined to West Bengal, but the other
three disagreed on the outcome in Kerala. The CSDS post-poll survey
suggested it would be a really close contest with the CPM-led Left
Democratic Front marginally more likely to form the government, largely
thanks to the popularity of chief minister V S Achuthanandan. The CVoter
and ORG polls in contrast gave the Congress-led United Democratic Front
a clear edge.
A poll done by Asianet-C-Fore for Kerala has
projected the UDF winning between 72 and 82 seats with the LDF winning
If the latter predictions come true, it would mean
that the Left would be out of power in both of its major states for the
first time in over three decades.
In Tamil Nadu, the CSDS and ORG post-poll surveys project a very close fight.
While the CSDS poll predicts that the AIADMK-led opposition alliance
has the edge and is likely to get a slim majority, the ORG poll suggests
the reverse. The CVoter exit poll is the only one to suggest the state
will deliver a decisive mandate favouring the opposition front. Its
projection is that the J Jayalalithaa-led coalition will win between 168
and 176 of the 234 seats in the assembly.
In Assam, the CSDS
poll is the only one that projects a clear winner, predicting between 64
and 72 seats for the Congress in the 126-member assembly. The ORG
survey gives the Congress between 41 and 47 seats and the CVoter exit
poll gives the party between 41 and 45 seats.
Even if these
projections come true, however, the Congress will be most likely to form
the next government given the projected distribution of the remaining
seats between the Asom Gana Parishad, the BJP, the Assam United
Democratic Front and other smaller groups.