- War brings profits to south Thailand

The diplomatic gesture is unlikely to have any immediate impact on the separatist militants or on the overall lawlessness in the region that has allowed the insurgency to thrive. The majority of the population in the three southernmost Thai provinces of Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat and four districts of neighboring Songkhla province are ethnic Malay Muslims, who make up the majority of the population in Malaysia.

The historically restive region was once part of the sultanate of Pattani that also included parts of modern-day northern Malaysia. It was incorporated into Siam, now Thailand, in 1909 and has shown on-and-off resistance to Bangkok's Buddhist majority rule since the 1940s. The result has been that many Malay-Muslims in the region have relatives on both sides of the border and often look more towards Malaysia for social, economic and religious inspiration.

Young people in search of work look more frequently to comparatively prosperous Kelantan in Malaysia's north or to cities further inland such as the capital, Kuala Lumpur, where they speak the local language and are at home with the customs and religion. Thai officials have claimed in the past that anywhere between 50,000 and 100,000 Malay Muslims in the area possess both Thai and Malay identity cards.

There are widespread sentiments among Malay Muslims that Bangkok has long neglected their economic and educational needs and refused to accept their different culture and history. This has engendered among some a deep-seated mistrust of the Thai state, exacerbated by recent heavy handed measures used by security forces to restore law and order.

According to Deep South Watch, a monitoring group at Pattani's Prince of Songkhla University, more than 3,900 people have been killed in the region between January 2004 and the end of October 2009.

The fact that several older and likely current insurgent group leaders reside or sometimes take sanctuary across the border in Malaysia will ultimately require Kuala Lumpur's input in any final solution to the conflict. However, dialogue between the two governments on the insurgency has not always gone smoothly.

Many Malaysians were outraged by the mass killings of Muslims by Thai security forces at Krue Se mosque in April 2004 and the suffocation deaths in army custody of 78 Malay-Muslims apprehended at Tak Bai town later that year. A suggestion made by then-Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad that Thailand should grant autonomy to its three southernmost provinces was received coolly in Bangkok.

Bilateral relations deteriorated in 2005 when a group of 131 Malay-Muslims, including women and children, fled across the Thai border into northern Malaysia claiming fears of government persecution. Malaysia refused to hand them back without monitoring by the United Nations. Smarting from the loss of face and fears of internationalizing the conflict, Bangkok was quick to label the refugees as insurgents and accused Kuala Lumpur of meddling in its domestic affairs. Follow-up accusations were made by Thai officials that insurgents had been trained in Malaysia's remote northern jungle areas.

Surayud Chulanont, a former army commander and at the time premier, attempted to repair relations in 2006 by holding talks with Mahathir's successor, Abdullah Badawi. That effort hit a snag when Surayud claimed that the insurgency was being funded partially through a network of tom yam kung (spicy Thai soup) restaurants in Malaysia. Kuala Lumpur discounted those claims, with then-deputy security minister Fu Ah Kiow calling the charge "absolutely baseless" and "very imaginative".

Relations have since improved, with both sides putting aside accusations and working to find solutions, say analysts. Malaysia's view that the problem stems in part from a lack of social and economic development in the region prompted the creation of a joint development program, dubbed the "Three E's" for education, employment and entrepreneurship, aimed at bridging the income gap between southern Thailand and northern Malaysia. An agreement on the program was signed in 2007 at a joint commission meeting in Bangkok.

Instability contagion
Kuala Lumpur is clearly concerned that the violence could spread into Malaysia or that it could lead international militant networks to take root in the region.

From behind the scenes, Malaysia has been a partner in attempts to negotiate with separatists, according to people familiar with the talks. The Malaysian government is also believed to have lines of communications with leaders of Thai separatist movements, including with the more mainstream Patani United Liberation Organization (PULO) and the Barisan Revolusi Nasional-Coordinate (BRN-C).

Attempts at negotiation have apparently been encumbered by the inability of Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur to determine which group at any given time actually controls fighters on the ground. The juwae, or "fighters", as they call themselves, are known to operate in small cells with a fractious leadership that has made it difficult to determine both their aims and numbers.

The Thai army commander, General Anupong Paochinda, has made it clear on several recent occasions that no negotiations will be held with the separatists. Meanwhile, the military's lack of progress in apprehending the perpetrators of a June massacre of 11 Muslim worshippers at the al-Furqan mosque in Narathiwat province is believed to have inflamed insurgent passions.

While the insurgency has contributed to the region's instability, some Thai officials claim that disputes between local politicians and criminal gangs are the main cause of the violence. The Thai Fourth Army commander, Lieutenant General Pichet Wisaijorn, the top military official responsible for the southern region, told Asia Times Online in November that statistics collected beginning last year showed that only 26% of violent incidents were insurgency-related. If true, that means the majority of the nearly 4,000 murders committed over the past six years can be attributed to political disputes and criminal activity.

While the insurgency may be the focal point of discussions between Malaysia and Thailand, the real discussion, if the military's claims are to be believed, should be on how to eliminate criminal activity along their mutual border. Although violence has been limited to the Thai side, the links between insurgent violence and criminal gangs cannot be ignored. Nor can the potential of criminal-related violence spilling over into Malaysia, especially if the potential for profits is high enough.

Clothing, rice, farm animals, fireworks, electronics, wildlife, gasoline, automobiles and narcotics are all smuggled across the border, often to avoid tariff payments. According to Malaysian statistics, in the first six months of 2009, the General Operations Force, a paramilitary branch of the Royal Malaysian Police, seized almost US$2.9 million worth of contraband in Kelantan state. The Marine Operations Force, Malaysia's marine police, seized some $1.38 million in smuggled goods last year.

Narcotics have become a major issue, with large amounts of amphetamine-type stimulants, mostly produced in Myanmar, passing across the border. Despite severe anti-narcotics laws that include death penalties, drug use among Malaysians, particularly young people, is growing rapidly and the country is increasingly becoming a transit country for trafficking across the region, according to the US's 2009 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report.

Malaysia was earlier this year placed on the US's human trafficking blacklist and was the subject of a report released by the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee in April. Both reports alleged that Malaysian immigration and security forces were complicit with well-organized networks in human trafficking across the border with Thailand. Although the report focused largely on Malaysia, the cross-border nature of the networks suggests involvement by Thai security forces and officials as well.

Malaysian officials initially denied the accusations, but only weeks after assuming the premiership, Najib pledged on April 24 to investigate the issues raised in the US report. "We will take appropriate action," he told the Associated Press on April 25. "We do not want Malaysia to be used as a point for human trafficking ... but we need to know more facts." Since then a crackdown has ensued, resulting in the arrest of individuals believed to be connected to human trafficking gangs and several immigration officers.

According to Thai military officers responsible for security in the area, criminal syndicates run networks that traffic heroin and methamphetamine through the area to Malaysia. Women from northern Thailand and even as far away as China, Vietnam and Russia are brought to border towns such as Sungai Kolok in Narathiwat province and Betong in Yala province and forced into prostitution to service a largely Malaysian clientele.

Criminal officials
Joint border patrols established between the Malay and Thai security forces are frequently undermined by what many allege is rampant corruption. One well-placed source alleged that profits are high enough that some police and government officials lobby to get placements in Thailand's southernmost region. This has fostered a belief among many in the south that the insurgency will not end because of the profit opportunities the lawlessness and conflict provide.

Najib's visit this week was his first to Thailand since becoming prime minister on April 3. Following talks with his Thai counterpart, Abhisit, who reportedly explained his government's approach of emphasizing development and restoring justice in the region, Najib said he supported Thailand's efforts and would provide information and intelligence to help bolster security.

"The message is clear, the people of southern Thailand must be loyal to Thailand, must be loyal to the Thai constitution and must be loyal to the king of Thailand," said Najib. "Malaysia stands ready to be your partner, but a partner who will respect that this is essentially a domestic problem for Thailand."

In October, Najib had proposed, in interviews he gave to two Thai English-language newspapers, giving greater autonomy in southern Thailand. The suggestion received mixed reactions in Bangkok, with some seeing it as possible Malaysian meddling in Thai internal affairs. However, the idea was initially backed by Abhisit, who said he would discuss the proposal further during their December meeting.

It is unlikely the proposal will progress in the near future after Chavalit Yonchaiyudh, a former general and now chairman of the Thai opposition Puea Thai party, made a similar suggestion last month calling for the establishment of an autonomous "Pattani City". Although that was widely viewed as a publicity stunt, Abhisit's ruling Democrat Party-led coalition reacted strongly, with some politicians calling the proposal "traitorous". Despite the furor, Najib's suggestion and Chavalit's proposal have opened the issue of autonomy for the south to public debate.

In that direction, Najib's visit also provides Abhisit with an opportunity to put his civilian stamp of authority on solving the south's problems. Many analysts feel that the military plays too large a policy role and that more emphasis should be placed on finding a political solution to the conflict. Many southerners have said that the military needs to be held accountable for past abuses, especially the incidents at Krue Se mosque and Tak Bai as well as the mysterious mosque massacre in July.

Abhisit pledged earlier this year to reign in the military's influence and rebuild the local population's faith in justice, but so far little has been done. A move to take the development-oriented Southern Border Provinces Administration Center out from under the military-run Internal Security Operations Command has been slow and still awaiting a decision by parliament. Abhisit has also failed to repeal emergency laws in place in the southernmost provinces that give sweeping powers to security forces, although martial law has been repealed in four districts of Songkhla province.

Najib's visit culminated in a trip to Narathiwat province for a ceremony to rename a bridge straddling the border, the "Friendship Bridge". Plans are also in the works to build a new bridge between Tak Bai on the Thai side of the Kolok River and Pengkala Kubur in northern Malaysia, where a ferry operates.

It marked the first time a Malaysian prime minister had visited Thailand's southernmost provinces and symbolically showed that Kuala Lumpur is behind Thai policies. So far the insurgents appear unimpressed. On the day of Abhisit and Najib's visit to Narathiwat, several bombings and shootings were launched against security forces.

Some of the bombs were placed as booby-traps on banners written in the local dialect proclaiming, "We will fight to get our rights back until we die" and "We will die together to get back the Pattani state" and "Pattani state is part of Malaysia".

Whether insurgents or criminal gangs were behind the violence and publicity stunt, they are unlikely to honor pledges from far away Bangkok or Kuala Lumpur. As long as government's economic, social and political policies are undermined by military abuses and corruption is tolerated among officials on both sides of the border, there will be no end to the violence in the southern Thailand.

Brian McCartan is a Bangkok-based freelance journalist. He may be reached at brianpm@comcast.net.